Will There Be An Israel-Syria War This Summer?

[CHUQ]

Found this while surfing. thoughts?



WASHINGTON, July 9 (UPI) -- Well-informed sources in Washington fear a confrontation between Syria and Israel may happen this summer. The sources say that Syrian intelligence is abuzz with activity reports of an imminent Israeli attack across the Golan Heights, while others believe it is Syria that is gearing up for war.

Dennis Ross, a former senior U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, was quoted by an Israeli newspaper as saying he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Syria and Israel in the summer. Ross told YnetNews, Yedioth Ahronoth's Internet edition, that "no one has made any decisions, but the Syrians are positioning themselves for war."
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http://www.upi.com/International_Intelligence/Analysis/2007/07/09/analysis_rumors_of_syriaisrael_war/2584/

[Tumbleweed]

The sources say that Syrian intelligence is abuzz with activity reports of an imminent Israeli attack across the Golan Heights, while others believe it is Syria that is gearing up for war.

Those same sources have been saying that for months now. Anything could happen I suppose but an all out war with Israel isn't in the best interest with Syria because lately they have been attracting foreign investment and inroads to foreign markets.

An invasion of Israel could send all those efforts into collapse.IMO.

[CHUQ]

I agree, the Syrians are trying hard to breal their isolation. Yes, I am sure somewhere someone is taking weapons across the borders, but that happens in every war.

[aifo yakov]

Found this while surfing. thoughts?



WASHINGTON, July 9 (UPI) -- Well-informed sources in Washington fear a confrontation between Syria and Israel may happen this summer. The sources say that Syrian intelligence is abuzz with activity reports of an imminent Israeli attack across the Golan Heights, while others believe it is Syria that is gearing up for war.

Dennis Ross, a former senior U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, was quoted by an Israeli newspaper as saying he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Syria and Israel in the summer. Ross told YnetNews, Yedioth Ahronoth's Internet edition, that "no one has made any decisions, but the Syrians are positioning themselves for war."
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http://www.upi.com/International_Intelligence/Analysis/2007/07/09/analysis_rumors_of_syriaisrael_war/2584/


Funny how you missed the Syrian preparations for war that preceded this state of affairs.

Funny how you missed Syria (Iran) re-arming Hezbollah.

Funny how you missed Iran training Gazan fighters.

The word now is that Syria will start attacks in October or November.

[CHUQ]

Funny I did not see any proof of the accusations. I miss very little on the ME but then I do not go to anti-Arab sites for my news.

[aifo yakov]

I agree, the Syrians are trying hard to breal their isolation. Yes, I am sure somewhere someone is taking weapons across the borders, but that happens in every war.

UN Resolutions 1701 and 1559 called for the disarming of militias including Hexbollah. Obviously it has not been done and it seems liek no one had any intention of doing it. Eventually, Hezbollah will concoct a cocamamie excuse to start another was.

[Tumbleweed]

Funny how you missed the Syrian preparations for war that preceded this state of affairs.

Funny how you missed Syria (Iran) re-arming Hezbollah.

Funny how you missed Iran training Gazan fighters.

The word now is that Syria will start attacks in October or November.
Funny how you missed that claim has been going on for 2 years now and still no confrontation.

Funny how you overlooked the fact Syria is attempting to lure free markets into their economy , which would be non-existent if a war broke out.

Funny how you missed the fact that terrorist in the Gaza Strip don't need further training. They get all the operational training they need. As of late, they even used it.

Simple movement of arms and troops within Syria could also mean they are making preparations for their own defense too. Israel is just as much a threat to Syria as Syria is to them.

Dennis Ross, a former senior U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, was quoted by an Israeli newspaper as saying he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Syria and Israel in the summer

That's no smoking gun. Hell, there is always a "risk" of war in that region. That's a vague statement quoted by an Israeli newspaper. What would you expect him to say? Former huh? I guess if he knew as much as his title gives him credit for in this article, we wouldn't be having this conversation. The ink would have dried a long time ago on a peace treaty.

Analysis: Rumors of Syria-Israel war

Rumors huh? Israel is paranoid too. That's no rumor. They look for excuses to attack first.

That's what's funny. It's the kettle calling the stove black.

[aifo yakov]

Funny how you missed that claim has been going on for 2 years now and still no confrontation.

Did you know that the 1973 war war had been planned for earlier, but when Israel mobilized in advance, the war was delayed? How do you know that Israeli counter movements to Syrian movements along the armistice line didn't cause Syria to delay their plans to attack? You don't. I don't, but there are indications that this may have occurred.

Funny how you overlooked the fact Syria is attempting to lure free markets into their economy , which would be non-existent if a war broke out.

If that was a real consideration, then Syria would make a real peace. so would the Palestinians and Iranians.

Funny how you missed the fact that terrorist in the Gaza Strip don't need further training. They get all the operational training they need. As of late, they even used it.

Then why are guys from Gaza going to Iran for training by the Republican guards?

Simple movement of arms and troops within Syria could also mean they are making preparations for their own defense too. Israel is just as much a threat to Syria as Syria is to them.

Israel has only attacked Syria when Syria attacked Israel. In other words, Syria always struck first. So, Israel is not as much a threat to Syria as Syria is to Israel.

That's no smoking gun. Hell, there is always a "risk" of war in that region. That's a vague statement quoted by an Israeli newspaper. What would you expect him to say? Former huh? I guess if he knew as much as his title gives him credit for in this article, we wouldn't be having this conversation. The ink would have dried a long time ago on a peace treaty.

The ink would have dried on a peace treaty if the Arabs wanted a peace treaty. Remember the treaties with Egypt and Jordan? How about informal relations with Dubai and other Muslim countries? how about formal relations with Turkey?

There has been talk for at least 6 months about an Iranian instigated war with attacks on Israel coming from Syria, Nasrallah/Hezbollah and Gaza.

Rumors huh? Israel is paranoid too. That's no rumor. They look for excuses to attack first.

That's what's funny. It's the kettle calling the stove black.
Exactly when has Israel instigated the attack without provocation?

[Tumbleweed]

Israel is not as much a threat to Syria as Syria is to Israel
Is that right? Well, Israel's actions suggests different.

RAFAH, Gaza, June 28 — Israel today stepped up its confrontation with Palestinian militants over the capture of an Israeli soldier and threatened an even broader response — including possibly a strike in Syria — if the young man is not freed.

Syria isn't holding the soldier, the Palestinian's are.

Israel started shelling areas in northern Gaza where Palestinians often fire Qassam rockets into Israeli, preparing for a possible incursion in the north, and also flew warplanes over the house of Syrian president Bashar Assad, a blunt message, Israelis said, that he should help in freeing the soldier, Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

Israel violated Syrian air space. This was a threat to kill the Syrian president. I don't recall Syria violating Israel air space. It looks like Israel was the one threatening Syria.

"We won't hesitate to carry out extreme action to bring Gilad back to his family," Mr. Olmert said,

Including an attack on Syria.

Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/28/world/middleeast/28cnd-mideast.html?ex=1309147200&en=fd841b3d6723a3c0&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss)

Israel is making the threats, not Syria.

Syria is allowed to mass troops close to the Golan ceasefire line while staying within the letter of the disengagement agreement.

The rules allow only 6,000 soldiers and 75 tanks within 10km (6 miles), and 450 tanks within 20km, but beyond 20km there are no limitations.

Syria is within it's rights to move troops as they please. Given the threat from Israel, I'd say they are justified after Israel's threat. It's nothing more than saber rattling by Syria. Once again, it's Israel being the one who is provoking a confrontation.

[aifo yakov]

Is that right? Well, Israel's actions suggests different.

Syria isn't holding the soldier, the Palestinian's are.

Syria provieds refuge and sustenance for the leaders of hamas and other "resistance" fighters. (Daren't use the prejudicial word "terrorist")

Israel violated Syrian air space. This was a threat to kill the Syrian president. I don't recall Syria violating Israel air space. It looks like Israel was the one threatening Syria.

Read this for a better explanation (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/28/AR2006062801353_pf.html) .

Including an attack on Syria.

Source (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/28/world/middleeast/28cnd-mideast.html?ex=1309147200&en=fd841b3d6723a3c0&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss)

Israel is making the threats, not Syria.

Excuse me? Syria is in a state of war with Israel. Syria is harboring groups that attack Israel. Syria is not immune from attack becasue of its actions.

Syria is allowed to mass troops close to the Golan ceasefire line while staying within the letter of the disengagement agreement.

The rules allow only 6,000 soldiers and 75 tanks within 10km (6 miles), and 450 tanks within 20km, but beyond 20km there are no limitations.

Syria is within it's rights to move troops as they please. Given the threat from Israel, I'd say they are justified after Israel's threat. It's nothing more than saber rattling by Syria. Once again, it's Israel being the one who is provoking a confrontation.

Yes, they are. But when they make such moves, when they make alliances with Iran, when they supply rockets to Hezbollah to attack Israel, the signs are waning, not friendly.

[CHUQ]

UN Resolutions 1701 and 1559 called for the disarming of militias including Hexbollah. Obviously it has not been done and it seems liek no one had any intention of doing it. Eventually, Hezbollah will concoct a cocamamie excuse to start another was.

UN Resolutions? Please the only ones Israel will even mention are the ones that benefit only them. Not a good argument, IMO.

[aifo yakov]

UN Resolutions? Please the only ones Israel will even mention are the ones that benefit only them. Not a good argument, IMO.

Let's see if I understand this right.

If the UN passes a resolution that is totally unfair to Israel, Israel should obey it. One such resolution condemned Israel for killing Palestinian children, but they specifically turned down a statement condemning Palestinians for killing Israeli children.

If the UN passes a resolution authorizing a peace-keeping force, the force is not bound to obey the terms of the resolution.

And you wonder why Israelis think of the UN as an enemy? Israelis except Olmert and Livni.

[Tumbleweed]

aifo yakov

Syria provieds refuge and sustenance for the leaders of hamas and other "resistance" fighters.

That's not an indication Syria is about to start a war.

Excuse me? Syria is in a state of war with Israel.
Define State of War.
Syria has been under a state of emergency since 1963. That is no indication of a declaration of war. That's the only State of War I'm aware of.

But when they make such moves, when they make alliances with Iran, when they supply rockets to Hezbollah to attack Israel, the signs are waning, not friendly.

Once again, that isn't an indication Syria is about to attack Israel. That's more along the lines of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend"

This so called threat of Syria attacking Israel is still only a perception in the eyes of Israel.

[CHUQ]

E#very country has its 'war games' as part of military preparedness. Then by your logic, since the US is conducting naval exercises in the Persian Gulf, we will soon be invading Iran.

[aifo yakov]

aifo yakov



That's not an indication Syria is about to start a war.

Syria has been in a state of war with Israel since Israel came to be.

Define State of War.
Syria has been under a state of emergency since 1963. That is no indication of a declaration of war. That's the only State of War I'm aware of.

Kenesst speech in 1976 (http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Foreign%20Relations/Israels%20Foreign%20Relations%20since%201947/1974-1977/157%20Statement%20in%20the%20Knesset%20by%20Deputy %20Premier%20and)

Once again, that isn't an indication Syria is about to attack Israel. That's more along the lines of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend"

It does not indicate that they aren't going to attack. Combine that with the re-arming of Hezbollah an the training of Hamas in Iran, you have no choice but to prepare for war. The more prepared you are, the less likely a war is.

This so called threat of Syria attacking Israel is still only a perception in the eyes of Israel.

Of course, it isn't you who are the object of Syria's resolute Hatred of Jewish Israelis and it isn't you who have been repeatedly attacked by the Syrians. Do you remember how Syria used to shell farmers at the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) from the escarpment of the Golan Heights? If you do, you might understand Israel's reluctance to give back to escarpment and gun emplacements on the top.

[Tumbleweed]

It does not indicate that they aren't going to attack.
I don't have time for a pissing contest. I'm not doing the yes it does, no it doesn't routine.

Combine that with the re-arming of Hezbollah an the training of Hamas in Iran, you have no choice but to prepare for war.
I hear what you are saying, but this is a discussion about an imminent war with Syria this summer, or even this year because of reports Syria might be about to attack Israel.

The Kenesst speech in 1976, as well as a State of Emergency in Syria are a bit dated, and are more of an indication that both sides should be aware of the other's intentions, but neither are a smoking gun to prove that Syria is about to attack. IMO.

Of course, it isn't you who are the object of Syria's resolute Hatred of Jewish Israelis and it isn't you who have been repeatedly attacked by the Syrians.

If Israel wasn't hell bent on grabbing land from all it's neighbors, they might not be in the predicament they are in either.

[aifo yakov]

I don't have time for a pissing contest. I'm not doing the yes it does, no it doesn't routine.


I hear what you are saying, but this is a discussion about an imminent war with Syria this summer, or even this year because of reports Syria might be about to attack Israel.

The Knesset speech in 1976, as well as a State of Emergency in Syria are a bit dated, and are more of an indication that both sides should be aware of the other's intentions, but neither are a smoking gun to prove that Syria is about to attack. IMO.



If Israel wasn't hell bent on grabbing land from all it's neighbors, they might not be in the predicament they are in either.

Your whole premise is based on your last statement. Explain to me how that statement is true in light of:

1. The Arabs attacked Israel in 1967 to destroy Israel, to take over all the land of Israel. (They lost).

2. In 1973, Syria and Egypt attacked again to get land back and, if possible, destroy Israel. Notice, that they had rejected all peace moves from 1967 to 1973 (and beyond).

3. Israel was required to give land back only in return for peace. Syria didn't make peace. The Palestinians didn't make peace. the Lebanese didn't make peace - instead they allowed the PLO to attack Israel from Lebanon.

4. Israel withdrew from Lebanon and got attacked.

5. Israel gave back Gaza and got attacked.

6. The Charter of Fatah/PLO calls for the destruction of Israel.

7. The charter of Hamas calls for the Destruction of Israel.

8. When Egypt was willing to make peace, Israel made peace.

9. When Jordan was willing to make peace, Israel made peace with Jordan.

So, please tell me how Israel is intent on grabbing land from all its neighbors.

It is thought that the date for Syria attacking Israel has been pushed back to October/November.

[Tumbleweed]

So, please tell me how Israel is intent on grabbing land from all its neighbors.
Are you serious?

Google "Israel land grabs"

It is thought that the date for Syria attacking Israel has been pushed back to October/November.

We is doing the thinking? Israel ? What are they basing that assumption on?

Once again, this is about Israel and Syria. Digging up bones about other countries is beside the point for this discussion on Syria's current "threat" of invading Israel.

[aifo yakov]

Are you serious?

Google "Israel land grabs"

And what will I get except a bunch of anti-Israel posts. I did and look what came up: Israel Land Grab (http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1157380,00.html)

Land grab in Gaza casts doubt on pullout

Chris McGreal in el-Mughraga
Friday February 27, 2004
The Guardian


This is, of course, typical of the anti-Israel posts that come up under that search. After all that crap, what did Israel do? Well it pulled out, didn't it?
We is doing the thinking? Israel ? What are they basing that assumption on?

Once again, this is about Israel and Syria. Digging up bones about other countries is beside the point for this discussion on Syria's current "threat" of invading Israel.
No, it isn't beside the point. The point is that Israel gets treated one way and everyone else gets treated another way.

You find it impossible to think that Syria would ever attack Israel and want to ignore that every war that took place between Syria and Israel was instigated by and started by Syria.

[Tumbleweed]

And what will I get except a bunch of anti-Israel posts

Oh, you mean the documented land grabs? Yea, that's what you will find. Israel is right and the rest of the world is wrong isn't something I'm buying.
After all that crap, what did Israel do
More of the same actually. You can call it anything you like, but it doesn't change facts.

Well it pulled out, didn't it

No they haven't. It's still going on.

The point is that Israel gets treated one way and everyone else gets treated another way.

Their aggressive policies brought that on.What goes around comes around.

You find it impossible to think that Syria would ever attack Israel

Wrong. We are talking about how likly it is Syria will attack Israel in the near future.

want to ignore that every war that took place between Syria and Israel was instigated by and started by Syria.

Wrong. You are trying to establish past confrontations as a way to proclaim that they have done it in the past and they are on the verge of doing it now.

I'm saying that though they have done it in the past, conditions within Syria suggest to me it isn't in Syria's best interest to do so this summer.

[aifo yakov]

DEBKAfile - We start where the media stop


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War tensions rise between Syria and Israel amid soothing words on both sides. Gen. Kaplinksy’s departure delayed

August 16, 2007, 9:59 AM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the delay in Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky’s scheduled departure as Deputy Chief of Staff, announced by the IDF spokesman Wednesday night, Aug 15, is connected with the war tensions on Israel’s northern and Gaza borders and renewed threats from Iran. Defense minister Ehud Barak and chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gabby Ashkenazi prefer to keep in harness at this time a general with experience in managing warfronts.

Barak inspected the IDF preparations on the northern front Wednesday the day after he escorted prime minister Ehud Olmert on a visit to the northern command. Both stressed that Israel does not seek war, echoed by Syria’s vice president Farouk a- Shara.

Tuesday, Aug. 14, DEBKAfile reported: intelligence data and ground activity add up to the presumption that Syria is planning a campaign of hit-and-run cross-border attacks against Israeli border patrols and positions in Golan and attempts to take hostages. OC Northern Command Maj. Gen. Gad Eisenkott and senior officers briefed the prime minister on their preparations in anticipation of such attacks.

They discussed ways of taking Syrian forces by surprise without provoking a full-scale conflict. In particular, Israeli decision-makers want to avoid exposing the populations of northern and central regions to Syrian missiles. They are also intent on limiting any flare-up to the Golan front and leaving out of the action the Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas and allied Palestinian terrorist groups of the Gaza Strip.

In recent weeks, DEBKAfile’s military sources report, Washington updates point to the rising influence of the pro-war faction in Bashar Assad’s government. As we reported last week, this faction is led by the Syrian president’s brother-in-law commander of military intelligence, Gen. Assaf Shawqat. Since then, Syrian troop reinforcements have been moved forward to the front line, mostly by night. They include artillery contingents which have been kept well behind hitherto.

US and Israeli intelligence watchers believe Syrian leaders’ calculations are based on their expectation of a low-intensity Israel response, such as artillery crossfire, to their attacks. They are sure that both Israel and the US are determined to avoid a major conflagration. They expect the Israeli air force to be activated against strategic targets deep inside Syria only if their own persist.

DEBKAfile’s military sources say that whether Israeli bombers go after civilian infrastructure, like bridges, highways and power stations, or stick to military targets, such radar stations, bases and military command posts, will depend on the duration of the Syrian offensive, its violence and how much pain is inflicted on Israeli lives and property. The Israel reprisal spiral is likely to match the intensity of Syrian attacks.

The scenarios examined by Israeli policy-makers during the prime minister’s visit therefore postulated a war of attrition starting later this year and going on for months. Charting how this war will unfold is chancy because some unforeseen circumstance could potentially blow it up suddenly into a full-scale war.

Some officers in the northern command therefore advocate a short and sharp Israeli response to nip any Syrian action in the bud before it develops, instead of a temperate reaction that would leave the tactical initiative with Damascus. Furthermore, if a war of attrition is allowed to drag on into the winter months, weather conditions would seriously hamper Israeli air force operations. Having heard these arguments, the prime minister, defense minister and the chief of staff must decide in the next few days how to proceed.



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